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By Doug Sandler, Chris Konstantinos & Rod Smyth, RiverFront Advance Group

The blueprint beneath may advice to explain the dichotomy we acquisition ourselves in. The abatement in the bulk of the S&P 500 aback October has been agnate in consequence to the declines in 2011 and 2015/16, apparent aloft by the blooming circles (the allotment declines are from aiguille to trough, which in the accepted case appropriately far, was the low on Christmas eve). The basis biconcave actual briefly beneath our basal trend-line in 2011 in October 2011, afore snapping back, and did the aforementioned this time. Friday’s assemblage aback aloft 2500 has brought it aback aloft the trend. Should stocks abide to rally, the abutting aloft test, in our view, will be the falling 200-day affective average, currently about 2700 (the red bandage in the blueprint below).

Both times a abeyant blackmail to the civil amplification of antithesis and bread-and-butter advance acquired investors to body the achievability of a added austere antithesis recession into the bulk of the index. The 2011 archetype was bound in a distinct 19% abatement and accepted bottomless accustomed that antithesis connected to abound in 2011 and 2012. The 2015/16 pullback came in two waves, and although antithesis did abatement it was alone hardly (less than 1%).

The S&P has already afresh traded bottomward from the top of its advancement angled trading bandage to the bottom.  Our abject case scenario, as presented in RiverFront’s 2019 Outlook: Crossroads[1] assumes that the breadth abreast the basal of the trading bandage will act as abutment aloof as it did on both antecedent occasions. (The dejected trend curve are fatigued application RiverFront’s best judgement).

We anticipate it will booty absolute account on the barter war with China and the acumen that the Fed is not activity to amplify bulk hikes to acquiesce our abject case 2019 Angle to comedy out. In our view, Friday’s changeabout of Thursday’s cynicism was accompanying to traders’ acumen that there was advance on both fronts and was auspicious to us.

In our bleak case we anticipate it will booty added time and lower lows afore a acceptable uptrend begins. As we altercate in our Outlook, this is a time for flexibility. As a result, we accept positioned our counterbalanced portfolios in what we accept is a almost aloof stock/bond/cash mix, accessible to move either way aback we accept greater conviction. As always, there is a active agitation aural the team, and we accept portfolio advance scenarios for anniversary outcome.

Lots of Jobs

In a anniversary aback surveys of US companies showed a beneath assured accomplishment sector, and respondents in both China and the US appear a added alert angle for the Chinese economy, the banal bazaar accustomed a able jobs report, apparent in the blueprint to the right. We consistently animate investors to focus on the 12-month affective boilerplate which has been actual abiding over the aftermost two years.

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Past achievement is no agreement of approaching results. Apparent for allegorical purposes alone and not apocalyptic of RiverFront performance.

US Fed Chair Powell “found the adapted notes” for banal investors in a accent on Friday consecutive to all the data. Stocks ailing in October aback Powell declared that he anticipation absorption ante had a continued way to acceleration to get to neutral. On Friday he adapted the Fed could abeyance its bulk hikes. “As always, there is no preset aisle for policy,” Powell said. “And decidedly with aerial aggrandizement readings that we’ve apparent advancing in, we will be accommodating as we watch to see how the abridgement evolves.” He captivated up the Yellen Fed’s dovish access in 2016 as an archetype of acceptable policymaking (a first) and emphasized patience, a charge to accident management, adaptability on both ante and the antithesis area and a alertness to axis aggressively if needed. We accept a adjustable Fed is what investors appetite at this stage, not one bent to accession ante to a agreed ambition level, and that played a cogent role in Friday’s rally.

Story continues

At RiverFront, we consistently abode accent on broker time frames. We anticipate it is adapted for best time-frame investors (7-10 years) to abide absolutely invested and beneath time-frame investors (3-5 years) to be added balanced, attractive for the adapted befalling to add a little added risk.

Doug Sandler, CFA, is Global Strategist; Chris Konstantinos, CFA, is Chief Advance Strategist; and Rod Smyth is Director of Investments at RiverFront Advance Group, a actor in the ETF Strategist Channel.

[1] RiverFront’s 2019 Outlook: Crossroads describes RiverFront’s predictions for 2019 application three scenarios (pessimistic, abject and optimistic). The appraisal is based on RiverFront’s Advance Team’s angle and opinions as of the date of advertisement of the Outlook. These angle are accountable to change and are not advised as advance recommendations. There is no representation that an broker will or is acceptable to accomplish absolute returns, abstain losses or acquaintance allotment as discussed for assorted bazaar classes.

Important Disclosure Information

The comments aloft accredit about to banking markets and not RiverFront portfolios or any accompanying performance. Accomplished after-effects are no agreement of approaching after-effects and no representation is fabricated that a applicant will or is acceptable to accomplish absolute returns, abstain losses, or acquaintance allotment agnate to those apparent or accomplished in the past.

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Diversification does not ensure a accumulation or assure adjoin a loss.

Past after-effects are no agreement of approaching after-effects and no representation is fabricated that a applicant will or is acceptable to accomplish absolute returns, abstain losses, or acquaintance allotment agnate to those apparent or accomplished in the past.

Information or abstracts apparent or acclimated in this actual is for allegorical purposes alone and was accustomed from sources believed to be reliable, but accurateness is not guaranteed.

In a ascent absorption bulk environment, the bulk of fixed-income balance about declines.

It is not accessible to advance anon in an index.

Technical assay is based on the abstraction of actual bulk movements and accomplished trend patterns.  There are no assurances that movements or trends can or will be bifold in the future.

Investing in adopted companies poses added risks aback political and bread-and-butter contest different to a country or arena may affect those markets and their issuers. In accession to such accepted all-embracing risks, the portfolio may additionally be apparent to bill aberration risks and arising markets risks as declared added below.

Changes in the bulk of adopted currencies compared to the U.S. dollar may affect (positively or negatively) the bulk of the portfolio’s investments. Such bill movements may action alone from, and/or in acknowledgment to, contest that do not contrarily affect the bulk of the aegis in the issuer’s home country. Also, the bulk of the portfolio may be afflicted by bill barter ascendancy regulations. The currencies of arising bazaar countries may acquaintance cogent declines adjoin the U.S. dollar, and abasement may action consecutive to investments in these currencies by the portfolio.

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Foreign investments, abnormally investments in arising markets, can be riskier and added airy than investments in the U.S. and are advised abstract and accountable to acute risks in accession to the accepted risks of advance in non-U.S. securities.  Also, aggrandizement and accelerated fluctuations in aggrandizement ante accept had, and may abide to have, abrogating furnishings on the economies and balance markets of assertive arising bazaar countries.

Stocks represent fractional buying of a corporation. If the association does well, its bulk increases, and investors allotment in the appreciation. However, if it goes bankrupt, or performs poorly, investors can lose their absolute antecedent advance (i.e., the banal bulk can go to zero).  Bonds represent a accommodation fabricated by an broker to a association or government.  As such, the broker gets a affirmed absorption bulk for a specific aeon of time and expects to get their aboriginal advance aback at the end of that time period, forth with the absorption earned. Advance accident is claim of the arch (amount invested). In the accident of a defalcation or added accumulated disruption, bonds are chief to stocks.  Investors should be acquainted of these differences above-mentioned to investing.

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Basis measures the achievement of 500 ample cap stocks, which calm represent about 80% of the absolute US equities market.

RiverFront Advance Group, LLC, is an advance adviser registered with the Balance Barter Commission beneath the Advance Advisers Act of 1940. The aggregation manages a array of portfolios utilizing stocks, bonds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). RiverFront additionally serves as sub-advisor to a alternation of alternate funds and ETFs. Opinions bidding are accepted as of the date apparent and are accountable to change. They are not advised as advance recommendations.

RiverFront is endemic primarily by its advisers through RiverFront Advance Captivation Group, LLC, the captivation aggregation for RiverFront. Baird Banking Association (BFC) is a boyhood buyer of RiverFront Advance Captivation Group, LLC and accordingly an aberrant buyer of RiverFront. BFC is the ancestor aggregation of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated (“Baird”), a registered broker/dealer and advance adviser.

Copyright © 2019 RiverFront Advance Group. All Rights Reserved. 705943

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