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When times are tough, bodies are still accommodating to absorb a blade to be amused.

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By James K. Glassman, Contributing Columnist January 30, 2019From Kiplinger’s Personal Finance

The bazaar is not abundant fun lately, but assertive stocks are. Alike if we are headed into a recession (and there are signs we may be), businesses that absorb bodies tend to do all right. Walt Disney (symbol DIS, $113), the bigger such banal by bazaar value, asperous a slight dip in sales and lower balance in the budgetary year that concluded in September 2009, as the Great Recession was advancing to a close. For the two budgetary years that straddled the bread-and-butter downturn, however, revenues added overall, and balance per allotment for the buyer of TV networks, affair parks, cine studios and a cruise band went on to set a almanac in 2011. The aggregation never arrangement its anniversary dividend, which added from 31 cents a allotment in 2007 to 60 cents a allotment bristles years after (today, it’s $1.76).

Disney keeps growing. Aftermost year, the aggregation accomplished a accord with Rupert Murdoch’s authority to buy 21st Century Fox, which includes 20th Century Fox blur and TV studios, U.K.-based Sky News, and some of Fox’s cable channels (though not Fox News) for a absolute of $71 billion.

Disney additionally owns eight of the world’s 10 bigger action parks, abstinent by attendance, including the first-place Magic Kingdom in Orlando and Shanghai Disneyland, which zoomed to cardinal eight in 2017, its additional year of operation. Alike if esplanade admissions—which run $135 per day for an developed at aiguille times at Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif.—fall off in a abrasion economy, the aggregation should abide to advance with its media business as Americans cushion at home and watch programming on TV, or maybe go to the movies for $10 or $12 a head.

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Including the Fox deal, Disney owns either all or a big block of ABC, ESPN, A&E, the National Geographic channel, Star (a arrangement in India that alcove added than 700 actor bodies a month), the Hulu alive service, Pixar, Lucasfilm and Marvel Entertainment, additional franchises including the Muppets, the Simpsons, X-Men, Star Wars, Winnie the Pooh and, of course, Mickey Mouse. And animation characters don’t allegation a aptitude fee or accomplish you fly them about on clandestine jets.

If you anticipate I like Disney, you’re right—especially at a price-earnings arrangement of aloof 16, based on analysts’ accord estimates for the budgetary year catastrophe in September. Oh, and Disney’s banal amount was appreciably abiding throughout a airy 2018.

Pick up some bargains. Unlike Disney, best ball stocks sank at the end of aftermost year. That’s alone natural; a falling course lowers all (or about all) boats. The catechism is whether companies can sustain their balance aback the abridgement slows or reverses course—or at atomic animation aback bound aback times get better. Netflix (NFLX, $338) is a acceptable candidate. It went accessible in 2002 and added its balance by 45% in 2008 and 40% in 2009. Netflix has had asperous patches, aback investors afraid about ascent antagonism or about new subscriptions stalling. But Netflix is the affectionate of aggregation that should be able to ride out any bread-and-butter storm. Its revenues aren’t abased on announcement but on bashful fees from consumers.

In contempo years, Netflix has gone all-around in a big way. In the third division of 2018, it added 5.9 actor adopted subscribers—more than bristles times its calm additions. Balance soared to 89 cents a share, up from 29 cents allotment in the third division of 2017. Still, Netflix banal alone by added than one-third from its July aerial through the end of 2018, authoritative it a bargain.

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Unfortunately, you can’t buy an exchange-traded armamentarium or alternate armamentarium that focuses alone on ball stocks. The abutting is Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Ball (PEJ), but two of its top four backing are restaurants, and it additionally owns airlines and hotels. My aptitude is against authentic aberration with a aggregation such as World Wrest­ling Ball (WWE, $79). It suffered a dip in revenues during the aftermost recession, but its profits captivated up. The boilerplate anniversary advance in the banal amount over the accomplished 10 years has been 23.4%, and, bucking the all-embracing bazaar trend, shares added than angled in 2018. Amount Band projects that WWE’s balance will abound an annualized 37.5% over the abutting bristles years, acknowledgment in allotment to a new TV accord with Fox.

Or accede Activision Blizzard (ATVI, $47), the video-gaming behemothic whose shares were clobbered at the end of 2018. The close owns such franchises as Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Candy Crush Saga and Major League Gaming. In a recession, it’s ambiguous gamers will abandon their obsession.

Nor, I suspect, will sports fans. Best teams are endemic privately, but shares of Manchester United (MANU, $19), the soccer aggregation based in the eponymous English city, barter on the New York Banal Exchange. The aggregation has become a all-around phenomenon. Games air in the U.S. (NBC paid $1 billion to advertisement matches of the Premier League, which includes Manchester United), and revenues accept risen a accumulative 50% over the accomplished three years, in allotment because of logo-heavy commodity sales. Another acceptable best is Madison Square Garden Co. (MSG, $280), accustomed in 1879. It now owns not alone the area in Midtown Manhattan but additionally the New York Knicks (basketball) and Rangers (hockey) teams, as able-bodied as an e-gambling company.

Looking for a blessed ending. Running cine theaters is not accessible these days. The ample in the business is AMC Ball Backing (AMC, $14), with added than 1,000 theaters in the U.S. and abroad. The aggregation was bought in 2012 by a Chinese firm, which launched an antecedent accessible banal alms a year after at $18 a share. The shares now barter at $14. Although AMC has struggled, I accept the banal has the abeyant to about-face about dramatically. I additionally acclaim America’s fourth-largest cine chain, Marcus (MCS, $43), which owns aloof 68 theaters, mostly in the Midwest, additional 21 hotels. It’s not a authentic ball investment, but it’s adamantine to resist. With a bazaar cap of $1.2 billion, it’s a amount play—despite a big stock-price acceleration in 2018. Alone a brace of analysts awning Marcus, but the banal trades at a reasonable appraisal of 23 times their estimated balance for 2019.

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Another baby ball close focused on the Midwest is Cedar Fair (FUN, $54), which owns action parks, including Cedar Point in Sandusky, Ohio, acclaimed for its 18 roller coasters. Structured as a bound partnership, Cedar Fair currently yields 6.9%. The company’s revenues biconcave alone hardly during the aftermost recession.

Finally, accede two all-embracing entertainers, both trading on the NYSE. Tencent Music Ball Group (TME, $13), the Chinese online music provider that was spun off from Tencent Backing in December, carries a whopping bazaar cap of $21.1 billion. Small-cap Eros All-embracing (EROS, $9) is not what its name implies. The New Jersey–based aggregation is a common benefactor for films and music fabricated in India. Eros is risky. It has almost any earnings, and alone two analysts awning the stock. But it’s in a alcove that should abound briskly, alike if the abridgement turns down.

Are we headed for a recession? No one knows, but the absolute acreage bazaar is aflame attention signs, abiding band yields accept dropped, and if the accepted amplification continues until July, it will become the longest back at atomic 1854. Ball stocks action a fun way to be prepared—and to accumulation no amount what happens.

James K. Glassman chairs Glassman Advisory, a public-affairs consulting firm. He does not address about his clients. He owns none of the stocks recommended in this column. His best contempo book is Safety Net: The Strategy for De-Risking Your Investments in a Time of Turbulence.

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